Capitol Hill Index2026 election polls and forecast
Polling averages for every Senate, House and governor race, adjusted so no pollster's lean tilts the result, with odds for control of Congress.
Where the seats stand
How the averages and forecast work
Polls. Every public poll in VoteHub's open database is pulled each morning. Each poll's weight depends on how recent it is (half-life of three weeks), its sample size, and whether it surveyed likely voters.
Keeping partisan polls in check. Polls paid for by a campaign or party move 3 points against their sponsor and count half. Each pollster's house effect, meaning how far its national polls run from everyone else's at the same time, is measured and subtracted. Firms that release many polls are down-weighted so no single pollster dominates. The National polls tab shows the averages from right-leaning, left-leaning and nonpartisan pollsters side by side.
Forecast. Each race blends its poll average with a baseline built from the national generic ballot, the state or district's partisan lean (Cook PVI) and incumbency. Races with more polling lean more on polls. The model runs 20,000 simulated elections with a shared national error, so races move together.
Ratings. Safe means a 95% or better chance, Likely 80 to 95%, Lean 60 to 80%, and Toss-up anything closer. Margins are the Democratic side minus the Republican side; where an independent is the main challenger to a Republican, the independent counts as that side.
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). Nominees: each state's certified primary results. Partisan lean: The Cook Political Report's PVI.